Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 145,068
2 Rhode Island 143,821
3 South Dakota 140,611
4 Utah 128,141
5 Tennessee 124,885
6 Arizona 122,045
7 Iowa 118,193
8 Wisconsin 116,233
9 Nebraska 115,777
10 South Carolina 115,632
11 Oklahoma 115,076
12 New Jersey 114,900
13 Arkansas 114,303
14 Delaware 112,419
15 Indiana 111,965
16 Alabama 111,829
17 Illinois 109,900
18 Kansas 109,136
19 Idaho 108,604
20 New York 108,410
21 Mississippi 107,422
22 Minnesota 107,148
23 Florida 107,124
24 Nevada 106,647
25 Wyoming 106,132
26 Montana 105,915
27 Georgia 104,134
28 Kentucky 103,890
29 Massachusetts 102,892
30 Texas 102,652
31 Louisiana 102,634
32 Missouri 101,755
33 Michigan 99,776
34 Connecticut 97,774
35 New Mexico 97,564
36 Colorado 96,517
37 North Carolina 96,366
38 California 96,329
39 Alaska 95,938
40 Pennsylvania 94,859
41 Ohio 94,801
42 West Virginia 91,165
43 Virginia 79,478
44 Maryland 76,379
45 New Hampshire 72,975
46 District of Columbia 69,758
47 Washington 58,866
48 Puerto Rico 54,203
49 Maine 51,120
50 Oregon 48,850
51 Vermont 39,034
52 Hawaii 25,328

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Missouri 118
2 Wyoming 109
3 Utah 105
4 Nevada 98
5 Arkansas 96
6 Colorado 88
7 Louisiana 87
8 Montana 75
9 Oregon 69
10 Washington 65
11 Arizona 54
12 Idaho 49
13 New Mexico 48
14 Texas 47
15 Kentucky 46
16 Indiana 44
17 West Virginia 44
18 Oklahoma 39
19 Georgia 38
20 Kansas 38
21 Mississippi 36
22 North Dakota 34
23 North Carolina 33
24 Delaware 31
25 Alabama 30
26 Tennessee 30
27 Maine 28
28 New Jersey 28
29 Iowa 27
30 Pennsylvania 27
31 Rhode Island 27
32 Ohio 26
33 District of Columbia 25
34 Alaska 23
35 California 23
36 Illinois 22
37 Virginia 22
38 Hawaii 21
39 Michigan 20
40 New Hampshire 20
41 Nebraska 19
42 Minnesota 18
43 New York 18
44 Wisconsin 15
45 South Dakota 13
46 Vermont 13
47 Connecticut 12
48 Maryland 12
49 Massachusetts 12
50 South Carolina 10
51 Puerto Rico 7
52 Florida 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,968
2 New York 2,724
3 Massachusetts 2,605
4 Rhode Island 2,571
5 Mississippi 2,476
6 Arizona 2,446
7 Connecticut 2,318
8 Alabama 2,302
9 Louisiana 2,296
10 South Dakota 2,291
11 Pennsylvania 2,155
12 Michigan 2,086
13 New Mexico 2,056
14 Indiana 2,044
15 North Dakota 2,039
16 Illinois 2,016
17 Arkansas 1,944
18 Georgia 1,937
19 Iowa 1,936
20 South Carolina 1,901
21 Oklahoma 1,858
22 Nevada 1,831
23 Tennessee 1,816
24 Texas 1,800
25 Kansas 1,771
26 Florida 1,735
27 Delaware 1,724
28 Ohio 1,721
29 Kentucky 1,616
30 District of Columbia 1,615
31 Maryland 1,604
32 Missouri 1,602
33 California 1,600
34 West Virginia 1,597
35 Montana 1,544
36 Wisconsin 1,381
37 Minnesota 1,351
38 Virginia 1,328
39 Nebraska 1,301
40 North Carolina 1,271
41 Wyoming 1,268
42 Colorado 1,190
43 Idaho 1,189
44 New Hampshire 1,004
45 Puerto Rico 795
46 Washington 768
47 Utah 724
48 Oregon 658
49 Maine 635
50 Alaska 486
51 Vermont 410
52 Hawaii 355

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Wyoming 5
2 Georgia 2
3 Maine 2
4 Michigan 2
5 Montana 2
6 Oklahoma 2
7 Arizona 1
8 Colorado 1
9 Idaho 1
10 Illinois 1
11 Kentucky 1
12 Louisiana 1
13 Mississippi 1
14 Missouri 1
15 Nevada 1
16 New Jersey 1
17 New Mexico 1
18 North Dakota 1
19 Oregon 1
20 Pennsylvania 1
21 Texas 1
22 Washington 1
23 West Virginia 1
24 Wisconsin 1
25 Alabama 0
26 Alaska 0
27 Arkansas 0
28 California 0
29 Connecticut 0
30 Delaware 0
31 District of Columbia 0
32 Florida 0
33 Hawaii 0
34 Indiana 0
35 Iowa 0
36 Kansas 0
37 Maryland 0
38 Massachusetts 0
39 Minnesota 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New York 0
43 North Carolina 0
44 Ohio 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 Rhode Island 0
47 South Carolina 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Tennessee 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 404,511 1 99
Crowley Colorado 364,626 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,851 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,849 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 247,773 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,369 198 93
Richland South Carolina 113,975 999 68
York South Carolina 113,713 1012 67
Orange California 85,927 2274 27
Pierce Washington 62,351 2831 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,159 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,609 1857 40
York South Carolina 1,388 2115 32
Richland South Carolina 1,383 2124 32
Davidson Tennessee 1,363 2149 31
Pierce Washington 698 2806 10

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons